War. What is it good for?
“War is the very crudest of responses and reflects the utter failure of imagination and intelligence in foreign policy. The cycle of poverty, inequality, and hatred will grow worse. Terrorist recruiting will flourish in the aftermath.” – Prof. Thompson Bradley, Swarthmore College
Is that so? I can think of at least 2 wars that led to a finer world, where no other response would’ve done the same. At least morally speaking.
But that’s not what this is really about. What’s it about, really, you ask? Money.
In the war of PR, Israel seems to be better placed than usual, but it’s really just a matter of time. Ultimately, economic interests dictate foreign policy, and while, for now, Israel is seen as justified in it’s attack on Lebanon, it is pictures from Beirut that cover the Sunday papers, not pictures from Haifa.
This is because no one really cares who is justified in doing what. Nobody is ever justified in costing you money. Israel’s action lead to instability,which leads to market drops and rising oil prices. Nobody likes that. Moral and legal issues be damned, nobody wants to pay for it.
There are a few foreign policy makers who can see through this though. Everybody is secretly smiling that we’re doing their dirty work for them. Both the US and the French have an open account with Hizbollah for their bloody attack on both of their respective marine corps. All G8 members have an interest in a stable, somewhat-democratic, non-extremist Lebanese government, detached from it’s Iranian Shiite influence. Lebanon is seen as a much-needed potential foothold of “Outsider” influence in the middle east. When all this comes to an end, hopefully with Israel’s aims achieved, a lot of money will be pouring into Lebanon. If the G8 can prove that they can make an Arab country “work” (The Iraqi experiment isn’t looking too bright right now), it’s possible others might follow, weakening the influence of Iran in the region.
While things now might look rather gloomy, with horrible pictures coming in from both the north of Israel and Lebanon, I remain hopeful that if Iranian influence can be removed, we might even see peace between us and both Syria and Lebanon within my lifetime. Removal of said Iranian influence through Hamas would also make peace with the Palestinians an achievable goal.
We’re in the middle of a conflict now, so nobody is as of yet talking about the day after, but those with any foresight can see that removal of Iran-through-Hizbollah as an integral policy-maker of the region will strengthen security and stability, and ultimately, lead to greater economic security and growth.
I believe most Arab nations have already accepted the fact that Israel is not going anywhere. They might not be pleased with it, but they can live with it. The faster Iran and her supporters throughout the ME get this through their thick skulls, the better for everyone in the region.
Tagged as 4gw, Bush Administration, casus belli, economy, HizbAllah, Iraq, israel, Israeli-Arab Conflict, lebanon, life during wartime, middle east, PR, propaganda, Thomas Bradley, War + Categorized as Current Events, Social Politics
The reaction to such words of a Hizboulla warrior would be: “Die infidel!”
The problem in this world is that if you cut off the Iranian head, two other heads will appear somewhere else picking up the debries and continuing to do a lot of bad in the world.
In places like Iran it would take more than just to bring the government down (as we saw in Iraq). It would also mean rehabilitating the contry and making sure everyone, including the poor and the hungry to feel better and satisified.
When that is accomplished you can really change a regime and make it work.
Each and everyone of the citizen of that country must not feel neglected or unhandled in any way.
Agreed. I think Iran is a very delicate matter. What I was referring to was to Iran’s influence on the region. Iran represents the extremist, anti-western, anti-peace, anti-zionist rhetoric of the Muslim (and Arab) world. If it is seen as though Iran’s way leads to substantial gains without encouring a substantial cost, it is seen as a victory, and sways more people over to their point of view. If it is seen, as it is seen now, that Iranian supposed gains inflict a dire cost, less people are willing to support and take part in their agenda, and Iran’s sphere of influence shrinks.
If Irani influence subsides to a particularly smallish corner, it can be manipulated to behave nicely.